A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
